Marcel Van Hattem secured the second Senate seat for Rio Grande do Sul in the October 4, 2026, election with 30.08% of valid votes, just behind Sanderson at 30.11%. Pre-election surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Neokemp in late September consistently placed the two candidates from the same center-right coalition at the top of consolidated first- and second-preference tallies, with Van Hattem often edging ahead or tied within the margin of error. Their joint campaign strategy and alignment on state debt renegotiation and federal judicial issues consolidated voter support, while trailing candidates like Manuela D’Ávila and Paulo Pimenta remained well behind. With full results certified by the TSE, trader consensus reflects the finalized outcome, though any unresolved recounts or formal challenges could still affect market resolution.