Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean CPI holding at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5-3.8%, remains the dominant driver behind trader positioning on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November cash rate decision. Persistent price pressures from housing costs, energy pass-through linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and resilient household incomes have sustained the RBA’s hawkish tilt after three 2026 hikes that lifted the policy rate to 4.35%. Recent bank economist shifts, including Westpac’s updated call for a November increase to 4.6%, alongside RBA officials’ signals of limited tolerance for above-target readings, support the 27% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point rise. At the same time, softening momentum in some activity indicators and the proximity of the September 29 meeting—where futures price a higher probability of action—anchor the 61.5% consensus for no change in November, with downside moves remaining heavily discounted.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 62%
25 bps increase 27.0%
50+ bps increase 5.4%
25 bps decrease 2.8%
$44,759 Vol.
$44,759 Vol.
3 nov 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 27.0%
50+ bps increase 5.4%
25 bps decrease 2.8%
$44,759 Vol.
$44,759 Vol.
3 nov 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,869 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$3,262 Vol.
3%
No change
$26,172 Vol.
62%
25 bps increase
$10,179 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$2,278 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean CPI holding at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5-3.8%, remains the dominant driver behind trader positioning on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November cash rate decision. Persistent price pressures from housing costs, energy pass-through linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and resilient household incomes have sustained the RBA’s hawkish tilt after three 2026 hikes that lifted the policy rate to 4.35%. Recent bank economist shifts, including Westpac’s updated call for a November increase to 4.6%, alongside RBA officials’ signals of limited tolerance for above-target readings, support the 27% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point rise. At the same time, softening momentum in some activity indicators and the proximity of the September 29 meeting—where futures price a higher probability of action—anchor the 61.5% consensus for no change in November, with downside moves remaining heavily discounted.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volumen
$44,759Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean CPI holding at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5-3.8%, remains the dominant driver behind trader positioning on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November cash rate decision. Persistent price pressures from housing costs, energy pass-through linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and resilient household incomes have sustained the RBA’s hawkish tilt after three 2026 hikes that lifted the policy rate to 4.35%. Recent bank economist shifts, including Westpac’s updated call for a November increase to 4.6%, alongside RBA officials’ signals of limited tolerance for above-target readings, support the 27% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point rise. At the same time, softening momentum in some activity indicators and the proximity of the September 29 meeting—where futures price a higher probability of action—anchor the 61.5% consensus for no change in November, with downside moves remaining heavily discounted.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$44,759Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean CPI holding at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5-3.8%, remains the dominant driver behind trader positioning on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November cash rate decision. Persistent price pressures from housing costs, energy pass-through linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and resilient household incomes have sustained the RBA’s hawkish tilt after three 2026 hikes that lifted the policy rate to 4.35%. Recent bank economist shifts, including Westpac’s updated call for a November increase to 4.6%, alongside RBA officials’ signals of limited tolerance for above-target readings, support the 27% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point rise. At the same time, softening momentum in some activity indicators and the proximity of the September 29 meeting—where futures price a higher probability of action—anchor the 61.5% consensus for no change in November, with downside moves remaining heavily discounted.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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