Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin FLIPR model currently assigns Democrats roughly 65-74 percent probability of winning Senate control in the 2026 midterms, reflecting recent polling averages that show Democratic candidates leading or competitive in key Republican-held seats including Ohio, Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa. These shifts have widened over the past month amid stronger generic-ballot numbers for Democrats and updates that moved several races toward the opposition. Republicans defend a 53-47 majority and must hold most toss-up or lean seats while protecting their own vulnerabilities to retain the chamber. With Election Day three weeks away, the model’s joint simulations of House, Senate, and governor races continue to favor a narrow Democratic edge, though outcomes remain sensitive to late polling movement in the five closest contests.