Russia and Iran maintain a comprehensive strategic partnership formalized in a 2025 treaty, which has produced regular high-level contacts amid shared regional priorities and sanctions pressure. Putin held direct talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek on September 1, 2026, and met senior Iranian adviser Ali Akbar Velayati in Moscow on October 1 to advance economic and SCO-related projects. Iranian representatives also joined multilateral consultations hosted in Moscow as recently as October 5. These patterns, combined with ongoing foreign-minister coordination and multilateral forums scheduled through year-end, underpin the 96% trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late-year disruptions such as health events or abrupt escalations remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome.