**Multiple incidents logged on OpenAI’s status page have already produced at least three qualifying ChatGPT outage days in June 2026, with additional disruptions reported around June 2, 9–12, and 16–17.** These events, driven by elevated error rates, degraded performance on mobile and web clients, and capacity issues, have shifted trader consensus sharply toward the 4+ outcome at 83.5% implied probability. OpenAI continues to experience recurring strain on its large language model infrastructure as usage scales, producing partial outages that meet the market’s resolution criteria even when brief. With roughly twelve days remaining in the month and no signs of improved stability, the market prices in a high likelihood of further incidents pushing the total to four or more days. Lower-probability outcomes (3 at 12%, 2 at 0.1%) would require an unusually quiet remainder of June that contradicts the pattern observed so far.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4+ 100.0%
<2 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$37,826 Vol.
$37,826 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<2
No
2
No
3
No
4+
Yes
4+ 100.0%
<2 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$37,826 Vol.
$37,826 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<2
$9,230 Vol.
No
2
$9,929 Vol.
No
3
$3,196 Vol.
No
4+
$15,471 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple incidents logged on OpenAI’s status page have already produced at least three qualifying ChatGPT outage days in June 2026, with additional disruptions reported around June 2, 9–12, and 16–17.** These events, driven by elevated error rates, degraded performance on mobile and web clients, and capacity issues, have shifted trader consensus sharply toward the 4+ outcome at 83.5% implied probability.
OpenAI continues to experience recurring strain on its large language model infrastructure as usage scales, producing partial outages that meet the market’s resolution criteria even when brief. With roughly twelve days remaining in the month and no signs of improved stability, the market prices in a high likelihood of further incidents pushing the total to four or more days. Lower-probability outcomes (3 at 12%, 2 at 0.1%) would require an unusually quiet remainder of June that contradicts the pattern observed so far.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Volumen
$37,826Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple incidents logged on OpenAI’s status page have already produced at least three qualifying ChatGPT outage days in June 2026, with additional disruptions reported around June 2, 9–12, and 16–17.** These events, driven by elevated error rates, degraded performance on mobile and web clients, and capacity issues, have shifted trader consensus sharply toward the 4+ outcome at 83.5% implied probability.
OpenAI continues to experience recurring strain on its large language model infrastructure as usage scales, producing partial outages that meet the market’s resolution criteria even when brief. With roughly twelve days remaining in the month and no signs of improved stability, the market prices in a high likelihood of further incidents pushing the total to four or more days. Lower-probability outcomes (3 at 12%, 2 at 0.1%) would require an unusually quiet remainder of June that contradicts the pattern observed so far.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$37,826Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
**Multiple incidents logged on OpenAI’s status page have already produced at least three qualifying ChatGPT outage days in June 2026, with additional disruptions reported around June 2, 9–12, and 16–17.** These events, driven by elevated error rates, degraded performance on mobile and web clients, and capacity issues, have shifted trader consensus sharply toward the 4+ outcome at 83.5% implied probability. OpenAI continues to experience recurring strain on its large language model infrastructure as usage scales, producing partial outages that meet the market’s resolution criteria even when brief. With roughly twelve days remaining in the month and no signs of improved stability, the market prices in a high likelihood of further incidents pushing the total to four or more days. Lower-probability outcomes (3 at 12%, 2 at 0.1%) would require an unusually quiet remainder of June that contradicts the pattern observed so far.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes