The non-competitive 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holding a double-digit lead over Republican Larry Marker in a state rated Safe or Solid Democratic, has kept trader probabilities spread across the 550,000–800,000 turnout brackets. Recent voting reforms such as permanent absentee ballot access and semi-open primaries produced above-average primary participation of 346,460 ballots in June, potentially lifting general election numbers through easier independent access. Midterm patterns, Democratic registration edges, and subdued campaign intensity on both sides limit upside or downside separation. Turnout could shift with absentee ballot trends or any late national or state mobilization efforts before the November 3 election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones al Senado de Nuevo México: Participación
Elecciones al Senado de Nuevo México: Participación
<550K 38%
750K-800K 35%
600K-650K 33%
650K-700K 33%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
<550K
38%
550K-600K
8%
600K-650K
33%
650K-700K
33%
700K-750K
32%
750K-800K
35%
800K-850K
21%
850K+
26%
<550K 38%
750K-800K 35%
600K-650K 33%
650K-700K 33%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
<550K
$24 Vol.
38%
550K-600K
$24 Vol.
8%
600K-650K
$24 Vol.
33%
650K-700K
$24 Vol.
33%
700K-750K
$24 Vol.
32%
750K-800K
$24 Vol.
35%
800K-850K
$24 Vol.
21%
850K+
$24 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The non-competitive 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holding a double-digit lead over Republican Larry Marker in a state rated Safe or Solid Democratic, has kept trader probabilities spread across the 550,000–800,000 turnout brackets. Recent voting reforms such as permanent absentee ballot access and semi-open primaries produced above-average primary participation of 346,460 ballots in June, potentially lifting general election numbers through easier independent access. Midterm patterns, Democratic registration edges, and subdued campaign intensity on both sides limit upside or downside separation. Turnout could shift with absentee ballot trends or any late national or state mobilization efforts before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volumen
$192Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The non-competitive 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holding a double-digit lead over Republican Larry Marker in a state rated Safe or Solid Democratic, has kept trader probabilities spread across the 550,000–800,000 turnout brackets. Recent voting reforms such as permanent absentee ballot access and semi-open primaries produced above-average primary participation of 346,460 ballots in June, potentially lifting general election numbers through easier independent access. Midterm patterns, Democratic registration edges, and subdued campaign intensity on both sides limit upside or downside separation. Turnout could shift with absentee ballot trends or any late national or state mobilization efforts before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$192Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-competitive 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holding a double-digit lead over Republican Larry Marker in a state rated Safe or Solid Democratic, has kept trader probabilities spread across the 550,000–800,000 turnout brackets. Recent voting reforms such as permanent absentee ballot access and semi-open primaries produced above-average primary participation of 346,460 ballots in June, potentially lifting general election numbers through easier independent access. Midterm patterns, Democratic registration edges, and subdued campaign intensity on both sides limit upside or downside separation. Turnout could shift with absentee ballot trends or any late national or state mobilization efforts before the November 3 election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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