Incumbent Keith Ellison holds a substantial lead in trader consensus for the November 2026 Minnesota attorney general election, reflecting his established record since 2019 and Democratic primary dominance, even as the contest has tightened. Recent KSTP/SurveyUSA polling from mid-September shows Republican nominee Ronald J. Schutz edging ahead 45-43 percent for the first time, driven by attacks on Medicaid and social services fraud cases under Ellison’s oversight, alongside Schutz’s stronger cash-on-hand position from campaign finance reports. Ellison maintains advantages among younger voters, women, and moderates, though sizable undecided shares in those groups and broader midterm dynamics tied to the Trump administration create volatility. Historical Democratic control of the office since 1971 further anchors probabilities, with resolution set for the November 3 general election outcome.