Recent sharp pullback from the KOSPI's June 2026 peak near 9,385 has anchored the 54.5% implied probability on "No," with the index closing at 6,626 on October 8 amid heavy foreign net selling exceeding 96 trillion won since June. Semiconductor heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK hynix drove the prior surge on AI demand but now face offsetting pressure from elevated U.S. Treasury yields above 5.3%, Brent crude near $100, and Middle East tensions weighing on valuations. Trader consensus reflects the index's 27-29% decline from highs versus gains in the Nasdaq and Nikkei, despite Samsung's record 107 trillion won Q3 operating profit. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC decisions, fourth-quarter chip earnings visibility, and any rotation back into Korean equities on sustained AI capital spending.