Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP was revised higher to 1.4% annualized QoQ, supported by stronger government spending, resilient net exports, and an upward adjustment to capital expenditure, establishing a base for continued moderate expansion into Q3. Low unemployment near 2.4%, real wage gains of 2.4% in July, and steady core inflation around 1.8-1.9% bolster household spending and corporate pricing power, though flat private consumption and soft business investment remain headwinds. Market-implied odds favor the 0.8%-1.6% annualized range as traders price in these dynamics alongside BoJ policy tightening expectations and yen movements, with Q3 preliminary data due in November serving as the key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0.8%–1.6% 52%
0.0%–0.8% 19.3%
1.6%–2.4% 11.1%
-0.8%–0.0% 6%
$25,967 Vol.
$25,967 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
6%
0.0%–0.8%
29%
0.8%–1.6%
52%
1.6%–2.4%
11%
2.4%–3.2%
4%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 52%
0.0%–0.8% 19.3%
1.6%–2.4% 11.1%
-0.8%–0.0% 6%
$25,967 Vol.
$25,967 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
$594 Vol.
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,312 Vol.
6%
0.0%–0.8%
$10,989 Vol.
29%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,218 Vol.
52%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Vol.
11%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,348 Vol.
4%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,234 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP was revised higher to 1.4% annualized QoQ, supported by stronger government spending, resilient net exports, and an upward adjustment to capital expenditure, establishing a base for continued moderate expansion into Q3. Low unemployment near 2.4%, real wage gains of 2.4% in July, and steady core inflation around 1.8-1.9% bolster household spending and corporate pricing power, though flat private consumption and soft business investment remain headwinds. Market-implied odds favor the 0.8%-1.6% annualized range as traders price in these dynamics alongside BoJ policy tightening expectations and yen movements, with Q3 preliminary data due in November serving as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volumen
$25,967Fecha de finalización
16 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP was revised higher to 1.4% annualized QoQ, supported by stronger government spending, resilient net exports, and an upward adjustment to capital expenditure, establishing a base for continued moderate expansion into Q3. Low unemployment near 2.4%, real wage gains of 2.4% in July, and steady core inflation around 1.8-1.9% bolster household spending and corporate pricing power, though flat private consumption and soft business investment remain headwinds. Market-implied odds favor the 0.8%-1.6% annualized range as traders price in these dynamics alongside BoJ policy tightening expectations and yen movements, with Q3 preliminary data due in November serving as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$25,967Fecha de finalización
16 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP was revised higher to 1.4% annualized QoQ, supported by stronger government spending, resilient net exports, and an upward adjustment to capital expenditure, establishing a base for continued moderate expansion into Q3. Low unemployment near 2.4%, real wage gains of 2.4% in July, and steady core inflation around 1.8-1.9% bolster household spending and corporate pricing power, though flat private consumption and soft business investment remain headwinds. Market-implied odds favor the 0.8%-1.6% annualized range as traders price in these dynamics alongside BoJ policy tightening expectations and yen movements, with Q3 preliminary data due in November serving as the key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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