The Reservists–New Economic Party, a new center-right alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha emphasizing universal military service, reservist benefits, tax cuts, and a Zionist-only coalition, sits near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold in the October 27 Knesset race. Recent polling shows mixed results, with several surveys projecting four seats (roughly 3.3% vote share) while others place it below the bar or at three seats amid overall bloc volatility and competition from other small lists. This uncertainty, combined with the party's limited name recognition and the historical difficulty new lists face clearing the threshold on election day, underpins trader consensus favoring outcomes below 3.25% as the most probable range. Surplus-vote agreements and final campaign momentum remain key variables that could shift final tallies.