Recent polls from multiple Israeli outlets place the Joint List alliance of Arab parties (Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad) in a narrow 7–9 seat range, aligning with the market’s tight distribution between the 6–7 and 8–9 outcomes. This positioning reflects stable Arab voter turnout projections and competition with Ra’am, alongside the list’s role in the fragmented Knesset arithmetic where neither major bloc consistently reaches the 61-seat majority threshold. Trader consensus appears anchored in these averages, with limited movement despite the Central Elections Committee’s September disqualification vote—which faces near-certain Supreme Court reversal—and Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen’s October statements offering conditional parliamentary support to any anti-Netanyahu configuration. The October 27 election date leaves little time for late shifts in turnout or alliances that could alter the seat total.