Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing list led by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, has polled near or below the 3.25% Knesset threshold in most recent surveys ahead of the October 27 election. Its support hovers in a narrow band because it competes directly for voters with established right-wing parties including Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance, while strategic decisions such as declining merger talks have limited consolidation of its base. Polling averages place the party around 2–4 seats, with recent results showing inconsistency that keeps probabilities for sub- and supra-threshold ranges closely matched. Late-campaign developments that could widen the gap include further fragmentation or consolidation among right-wing lists, shifts in security-issue salience, or turnout differences among national-religious and secular voters.