Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list led by retired IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter and launched in late August 2026 ahead of the October 27 election, polls near or below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold equivalent to roughly four Knesset seats. Recent October polling averages place the party at 2.4–3.4 seats, clearing the bar in some surveys for exactly four mandates while falling short in others amid competition from established right-wing parties and limited platform differentiation. Trader consensus on fewer than four seats therefore reflects the persistent threshold risk and absence of a sustained upward trend in the final weeks, while the smaller probability band for four-to-six seats tracks occasional poll crossings that could still shift bloc arithmetic for a Netanyahu-aligned government.