Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?
¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?
$1,149,470 Vol.
26 jun 2026
26 de junio
No
27 de junio
Sí
28 de junio
No
29 de junio
No
30 de junio
No
1 de julio
No
2 de julio
No
3 de julio
No
4 de julio
No
5 de julio
No
6 de julio
No
7 de julio
Sí
8 de julio
No
9 de julio
No
July 10
No
July 11
No
July 12
Yes
July 13
No
July 14
Yes
July 15
No
July 16
No
July 17
No
19 de julio
No
20 de julio
Sí
21 de julio
No
22 de julio
No
23 de julio
No
24 de julio
No
25 de julio
No
26 de julio
No
27 de julio
No
28 de julio
No
29 de julio
No
30 de julio
No
31 de julio
No
$1,149,470 Vol.
26 de junio
$53,305 Vol.
No
27 de junio
$76,209 Vol.
Sí
28 de junio
$41,622 Vol.
No
29 de junio
$70,230 Vol.
No
30 de junio
$63,002 Vol.
No
1 de julio
$37,538 Vol.
No
2 de julio
$32,646 Vol.
No
3 de julio
$45,220 Vol.
No
4 de julio
$137,937 Vol.
No
5 de julio
$42,058 Vol.
No
6 de julio
$76,320 Vol.
No
7 de julio
$71,766 Vol.
Sí
8 de julio
$71,683 Vol.
No
9 de julio
$37,515 Vol.
No
July 10
$13,861 Vol.
No
July 11
$31,605 Vol.
No
July 12
$41,177 Vol.
Yes
July 13
$52,730 Vol.
No
July 14
$23,388 Vol.
Yes
July 15
$6,745 Vol.
No
July 16
$16,743 Vol.
No
July 17
$27,103 Vol.
No
19 de julio
$14,349 Vol.
No
20 de julio
$11,826 Vol.
Sí
21 de julio
$21,471 Vol.
No
22 de julio
$787 Vol.
No
23 de julio
$14,082 Vol.
No
24 de julio
$1,495 Vol.
No
25 de julio
$1,089 Vol.
No
26 de julio
$225 Vol.
No
27 de julio
$20 Vol.
No
28 de julio
$937 Vol.
No
29 de julio
$1,687 Vol.
No
30 de julio
$770 Vol.
No
31 de julio
$10,330 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercado abierto: Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Volumen
$1,149,470Fecha de finalización
9 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$1,149,470Fecha de finalización
9 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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