Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable sovereign right has kept expectations low for any agreement to halt the activity by September 30. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on enrichment sites in 2025–2026 damaged facilities but did not alter Tehran’s position, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding deferred detailed nuclear talks without resolving enrichment limits or stockpile disposition. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at underground locations and IAEA reports of continued stockpile concerns underscore the absence of verifiable commitments. Negotiations under the current U.S. administration have repeatedly stalled on this core issue, with Iranian officials rejecting proposals for extended moratoriums or off-site enrichment models. These factors align with trader pricing that places high probability on no such agreement materializing within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre?
Sí
7% probabilidad
$56,135 Vol.
$56,135 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$56,135 Vol.
$56,135 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable sovereign right has kept expectations low for any agreement to halt the activity by September 30. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on enrichment sites in 2025–2026 damaged facilities but did not alter Tehran’s position, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding deferred detailed nuclear talks without resolving enrichment limits or stockpile disposition. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at underground locations and IAEA reports of continued stockpile concerns underscore the absence of verifiable commitments. Negotiations under the current U.S. administration have repeatedly stalled on this core issue, with Iranian officials rejecting proposals for extended moratoriums or off-site enrichment models. These factors align with trader pricing that places high probability on no such agreement materializing within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volumen
$56,135Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable sovereign right has kept expectations low for any agreement to halt the activity by September 30. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on enrichment sites in 2025–2026 damaged facilities but did not alter Tehran’s position, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding deferred detailed nuclear talks without resolving enrichment limits or stockpile disposition. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at underground locations and IAEA reports of continued stockpile concerns underscore the absence of verifiable commitments. Negotiations under the current U.S. administration have repeatedly stalled on this core issue, with Iranian officials rejecting proposals for extended moratoriums or off-site enrichment models. These factors align with trader pricing that places high probability on no such agreement materializing within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$56,135Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable sovereign right has kept expectations low for any agreement to halt the activity by September 30. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on enrichment sites in 2025–2026 damaged facilities but did not alter Tehran’s position, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding deferred detailed nuclear talks without resolving enrichment limits or stockpile disposition. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at underground locations and IAEA reports of continued stockpile concerns underscore the absence of verifiable commitments. Negotiations under the current U.S. administration have repeatedly stalled on this core issue, with Iranian officials rejecting proposals for extended moratoriums or off-site enrichment models. These factors align with trader pricing that places high probability on no such agreement materializing within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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