**Trader consensus centers on total ballots in the November 3, 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate general election between Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy falling in the 4–4.5 million range.** This open-seat contest follows Dick Durbin’s retirement in a state with a strong Democratic lean. Midterm turnout has historically run well below presidential levels—45.8% of eligible voters in 2022 and 51.5% in 2018—pointing toward totals near recent cycle averages. Democratic primary participation surged to roughly 1.28 million votes, nearly 50% above 2022, reflecting heightened engagement. Both campaigns are emphasizing get-out-the-vote operations, early voting, and mail ballots, while national dynamics and candidate mobilization efforts remain key variables that could shift final participation in the closing weeks.