Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 25 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of May 4 amid the ongoing 2026 crisis, where Iranian forces have largely blocked the chokepoint since late February through attacks on vessels and threats of mining. Recent naval skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces in early May, including reported strikes on May 4, 5, and 8, further throttled traffic, with ship-tracking data from IMF Portwatch and Kpler showing daily transits averaging under 10—mostly small cargo and Iranian-linked vessels—down from pre-crisis norms of 100-150 per day. This commanding position stems from verified AIS data confirming the historic low; realistic challenges include upward revisions for unreported "dark" ships or late diplomatic breakthroughs to clear the strait, though post-event data solidifies the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?
<25 100.0%
25-49 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$215,401 Vol.
$215,401 Vol.
10 may 2026
<25
Yes
25-49
No
50-74
No
75-99
No
100+
No
<25 100.0%
25-49 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$215,401 Vol.
$215,401 Vol.
10 may 2026
<25
$70,768 Vol.
Yes
25-49
$68,547 Vol.
No
50-74
$19,215 Vol.
No
75-99
$18,687 Vol.
No
100+
$38,186 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 25 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of May 4 amid the ongoing 2026 crisis, where Iranian forces have largely blocked the chokepoint since late February through attacks on vessels and threats of mining. Recent naval skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces in early May, including reported strikes on May 4, 5, and 8, further throttled traffic, with ship-tracking data from IMF Portwatch and Kpler showing daily transits averaging under 10—mostly small cargo and Iranian-linked vessels—down from pre-crisis norms of 100-150 per day. This commanding position stems from verified AIS data confirming the historic low; realistic challenges include upward revisions for unreported "dark" ships or late diplomatic breakthroughs to clear the strait, though post-event data solidifies the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volumen
$215,401Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 25 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of May 4 amid the ongoing 2026 crisis, where Iranian forces have largely blocked the chokepoint since late February through attacks on vessels and threats of mining. Recent naval skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces in early May, including reported strikes on May 4, 5, and 8, further throttled traffic, with ship-tracking data from IMF Portwatch and Kpler showing daily transits averaging under 10—mostly small cargo and Iranian-linked vessels—down from pre-crisis norms of 100-150 per day. This commanding position stems from verified AIS data confirming the historic low; realistic challenges include upward revisions for unreported "dark" ships or late diplomatic breakthroughs to clear the strait, though post-event data solidifies the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$215,401Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 25 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of May 4 amid the ongoing 2026 crisis, where Iranian forces have largely blocked the chokepoint since late February through attacks on vessels and threats of mining. Recent naval skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces in early May, including reported strikes on May 4, 5, and 8, further throttled traffic, with ship-tracking data from IMF Portwatch and Kpler showing daily transits averaging under 10—mostly small cargo and Iranian-linked vessels—down from pre-crisis norms of 100-150 per day. This commanding position stems from verified AIS data confirming the historic low; realistic challenges include upward revisions for unreported "dark" ships or late diplomatic breakthroughs to clear the strait, though post-event data solidifies the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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