Traders have assigned near-certain implied probability to the 150,000–200,000 jobs range for May nonfarm payrolls, driven by consistent recent labor-market signals including subdued initial jobless claims and moderate wage growth that point to neither acceleration nor sharp slowdown. This consensus aligns with the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance and current inflation trajectory, where a reading in this band would support steady policy expectations without prompting immediate shifts in rate-cut odds. Historical base rates for monthly gains in the post-pandemic period reinforce the positioning, yet the actual Bureau of Labor Statistics release could still be influenced by seasonal factors or prior-month revisions that occasionally produce surprises outside the narrow band.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many jobs added in May?
How many jobs added in May?
150k – 200k 100.0%
<0 <1%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
$13,161 Vol.
$13,161 Vol.
<0
No
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
Yes
200k+
No
150k – 200k 100.0%
<0 <1%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
$13,161 Vol.
$13,161 Vol.
<0
No
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
Yes
200k+
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Traders have assigned near-certain implied probability to the 150,000–200,000 jobs range for May nonfarm payrolls, driven by consistent recent labor-market signals including subdued initial jobless claims and moderate wage growth that point to neither acceleration nor sharp slowdown. This consensus aligns with the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance and current inflation trajectory, where a reading in this band would support steady policy expectations without prompting immediate shifts in rate-cut odds. Historical base rates for monthly gains in the post-pandemic period reinforce the positioning, yet the actual Bureau of Labor Statistics release could still be influenced by seasonal factors or prior-month revisions that occasionally produce surprises outside the narrow band.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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