**New Jersey’s 12 congressional districts feature a stable partisan split, with Democrats holding nine seats and Republicans three under the current post-2020 map.** Forecasters rate most Democratic districts as solid or likely holds, while two Republican seats (the 2nd and 4th) remain safely Republican. The 7th district stands out as the primary competitive race, currently held by Republican Tom Kean Jr. and rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple outlets amid national midterm dynamics favoring Democrats. Trader consensus around 10 Democratic seats aligns with expectations that Democrats will flip the 7th while retaining their existing nine, consistent with district-level fundamentals and the absence of successful mid-decade redistricting changes in the state. Outcomes of nine or 11+ seats reflect lower-probability scenarios tied to the 7th district result or broader turnout shifts, with limited recent developments—such as open-seat transitions in safe districts—altering that narrow range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado10 64%
11+ 18%
9 17%
8 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
<8
1%
8
1%
9
17%
10
64%
11+
18%
10 64%
11+ 18%
9 17%
8 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
<8
$206 Vol.
1%
8
$134 Vol.
1%
9
$828 Vol.
17%
10
$535 Vol.
64%
11+
$228 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**New Jersey’s 12 congressional districts feature a stable partisan split, with Democrats holding nine seats and Republicans three under the current post-2020 map.** Forecasters rate most Democratic districts as solid or likely holds, while two Republican seats (the 2nd and 4th) remain safely Republican. The 7th district stands out as the primary competitive race, currently held by Republican Tom Kean Jr. and rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple outlets amid national midterm dynamics favoring Democrats.
Trader consensus around 10 Democratic seats aligns with expectations that Democrats will flip the 7th while retaining their existing nine, consistent with district-level fundamentals and the absence of successful mid-decade redistricting changes in the state. Outcomes of nine or 11+ seats reflect lower-probability scenarios tied to the 7th district result or broader turnout shifts, with limited recent developments—such as open-seat transitions in safe districts—altering that narrow range.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ET
Volumen
$1,931Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**New Jersey’s 12 congressional districts feature a stable partisan split, with Democrats holding nine seats and Republicans three under the current post-2020 map.** Forecasters rate most Democratic districts as solid or likely holds, while two Republican seats (the 2nd and 4th) remain safely Republican. The 7th district stands out as the primary competitive race, currently held by Republican Tom Kean Jr. and rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple outlets amid national midterm dynamics favoring Democrats.
Trader consensus around 10 Democratic seats aligns with expectations that Democrats will flip the 7th while retaining their existing nine, consistent with district-level fundamentals and the absence of successful mid-decade redistricting changes in the state. Outcomes of nine or 11+ seats reflect lower-probability scenarios tied to the 7th district result or broader turnout shifts, with limited recent developments—such as open-seat transitions in safe districts—altering that narrow range.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,931Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**New Jersey’s 12 congressional districts feature a stable partisan split, with Democrats holding nine seats and Republicans three under the current post-2020 map.** Forecasters rate most Democratic districts as solid or likely holds, while two Republican seats (the 2nd and 4th) remain safely Republican. The 7th district stands out as the primary competitive race, currently held by Republican Tom Kean Jr. and rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple outlets amid national midterm dynamics favoring Democrats. Trader consensus around 10 Democratic seats aligns with expectations that Democrats will flip the 7th while retaining their existing nine, consistent with district-level fundamentals and the absence of successful mid-decade redistricting changes in the state. Outcomes of nine or 11+ seats reflect lower-probability scenarios tied to the 7th district result or broader turnout shifts, with limited recent developments—such as open-seat transitions in safe districts—altering that narrow range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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