The new Florida congressional map, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws 21 districts and shifts several previously Democratic-leaning seats toward Republican performance based on 2024 presidential results. This targets incumbents including Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, with analysts projecting a baseline of roughly four Democratic holds amid the broader 24-4 Republican tilt. Post-August primaries, trader dispersion across outcomes from 4 to 12+ seats reflects uncertainty over Democratic retention rates in these altered districts, turnout differentials, and any late national or candidate-specific shifts before November. The spread among mid-range totals highlights the map's role as the dominant variable, with consolidation likely tied to verifiable performance in the targeted competitive seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado11 14%
5 13%
4 11.5%
7 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
<4
2%
4
12%
5
13%
6
11%
7
12%
8
9%
9
9%
10
7%
11
14%
12+
12%
11 14%
5 13%
4 11.5%
7 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
<4
$177 Vol.
2%
4
$1,301 Vol.
12%
5
$647 Vol.
13%
6
$380 Vol.
11%
7
$403 Vol.
12%
8
$332 Vol.
9%
9
$372 Vol.
9%
10
$590 Vol.
7%
11
$670 Vol.
14%
12+
$466 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new Florida congressional map, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws 21 districts and shifts several previously Democratic-leaning seats toward Republican performance based on 2024 presidential results. This targets incumbents including Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, with analysts projecting a baseline of roughly four Democratic holds amid the broader 24-4 Republican tilt. Post-August primaries, trader dispersion across outcomes from 4 to 12+ seats reflects uncertainty over Democratic retention rates in these altered districts, turnout differentials, and any late national or candidate-specific shifts before November. The spread among mid-range totals highlights the map's role as the dominant variable, with consolidation likely tied to verifiable performance in the targeted competitive seats.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volumen
$5,339Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new Florida congressional map, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws 21 districts and shifts several previously Democratic-leaning seats toward Republican performance based on 2024 presidential results. This targets incumbents including Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, with analysts projecting a baseline of roughly four Democratic holds amid the broader 24-4 Republican tilt. Post-August primaries, trader dispersion across outcomes from 4 to 12+ seats reflects uncertainty over Democratic retention rates in these altered districts, turnout differentials, and any late national or candidate-specific shifts before November. The spread among mid-range totals highlights the map's role as the dominant variable, with consolidation likely tied to verifiable performance in the targeted competitive seats.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,339Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The new Florida congressional map, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws 21 districts and shifts several previously Democratic-leaning seats toward Republican performance based on 2024 presidential results. This targets incumbents including Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, with analysts projecting a baseline of roughly four Democratic holds amid the broader 24-4 Republican tilt. Post-August primaries, trader dispersion across outcomes from 4 to 12+ seats reflects uncertainty over Democratic retention rates in these altered districts, turnout differentials, and any late national or candidate-specific shifts before November. The spread among mid-range totals highlights the map's role as the dominant variable, with consolidation likely tied to verifiable performance in the targeted competitive seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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