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Política·Guerra Comercial

How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?

Market icon
Política·Guerra Comercial

How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?

20-30% 100.0%

<10% <1%

10-20% <1%

30-40% <1%

Polymarket

$1,389,364 Vol.

20-30% 100.0%

<10% <1%

10-20% <1%

30-40% <1%

Polymarket

$1,389,364 Vol.

<10%

$76,156 Vol.

No

10-20%

$296,919 Vol.

No

20-30%

$449,592 Vol.

Yes

30-40%

$311,852 Vol.

No

40% or more

$178,271 Vol.

No

No blanket tariff by June 30

$76,573 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU). If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU).

If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$1,389,364
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2025
Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2025, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU). If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU). If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU).

If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$1,389,364
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2025
Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2025, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU). If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "20-30%" con 100%, seguido de "<10%" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?" ha generado $1.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 2, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?" es "20-30%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "<10%" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.