Trader consensus clusters tightly around the 370K-430K range because Hawaii’s all-mail voting system has delivered consistent baseline participation in recent non-presidential cycles, while the solidly Democratic matchup between incumbent Josh Green and challenger Gary Cordery has produced limited voter enthusiasm. The August primary’s roughly 280,000 ballots at 33 percent turnout reinforced expectations of subdued general-election engagement absent a close contest or high-profile down-ballot races. Recent early-voting reports and the absence of major late-October catalysts keep the leading brackets nearly even. A surge in campaign advertising, national political spillover, or localized controversies could lift totals toward or above 430K, whereas continued apathy would favor the lower 370K-400K outcome.