Name: GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7?
Start: 2023-11-13T17:56:34.227Z
End: 2023-12-07T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official trailer for the next GTA (GTA 6) is released by Rockstar Games or any of its official accounts, including but not limited to Rockstar's official website, YouTube channel, Twitter, or any other official social media platform by December 7, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 

An "official trailer" is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games. 

This market will resolve immediately if such an official trailer is released by the expiry date. If no official trailer is released by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".

GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

¿GTA VI fue lanzado antes de junio de 2026?

On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


¿El lanzamiento de GTA 6 se ha pospuesto de nuevo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States.

If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price.

This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc.

If GTA 6 is not released by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Microsoft Store/PlayStation Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Costará GTA 6 más de $100?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Se lanzará GPT-6 a más tardar el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

¿Nuevo juego de Half-Life para el 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”

Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.

The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.

¿Lanzará Drake Iceman antes que GTA VI?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

¿Se anunciará Half-Life 3 antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5.3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3 (e.g., ChatGPT-5.3o,  would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. Products labeled as GPT-6 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

GPT-5.3 released by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


¿Podcast Up Only publicado antes del 28 de febrero de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series.

If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Nuevo episodio de "Stranger Things" lanzado antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Anuncios de GPT para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.

¿Anunciará George R. R. Martin "The Winds of Winter" en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Anunciará Liz Cheney una candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Renunciará Trump antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

¿Lanzará Tesla a Optimus antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Otra elección en Canadá convocada antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau are engaged to be married by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Perry and Trudeau have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Katy Perry and/or Justin Trudeau or one of their official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



¿Katy Perry y Justin Trudeau comprometidos para finales de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.


¿50 millones de visitas en un video de MrBeast en el primer día para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Se lanzará Claude 5 antes del 31 de marzo de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Return to Silent Hill (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on January 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Will "Return to Silent Hill" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Irá Elon Musk al programa de Joe Rogan antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Grok 5 lanzado para el 31 de marzo de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

“Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed).

Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution.

The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

¿Aparecerá Jeff Yan en el pódcast UpOnly antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Lanzará Apple una nueva versión del Apple TV antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ubisoft announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Ubisoft.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Anunciará Ubisoft su bancarrota antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? (January 25)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Banana Republic" in January?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

¿Respaldará Trump a algún candidato presidencial antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GMGN (https://gmgn.ai/app) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from GMGN, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Lanzará GMGN un token antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

¿Dirá Tesla "Elon" o "Musk" durante la llamada de resultados?

Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify.

If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Costará la Steam Machine $700 o más al salir al mercado?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if StandX officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


¿Lanzará StandX un token antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 26, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7?

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GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7?

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GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7?

Contexto del Mercado

GTA 6 trailer released by Dec 7?

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