Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican House candidates receiving between 7% and 16% support among Black registered voters, with Pew Research placing the figure at 7% in early October and other surveys such as Rasmussen and Echelon Insights reporting 16-19%. These results follow Donald Trump’s estimated 16% share of the Black vote in 2024 and reflect partial retention of those gains amid continued GOP outreach on economic and crime issues, offset by softer numbers in the absence of a presidential candidate on the ballot. Party identification data from Pew’s 2026 NPORS similarly indicates 14% Republican or lean-Republican identification among Black adults. Traders appear to weigh these mixed signals—sustained but uneven shifts alongside Democratic advantages exceeding 50 points in most recent generic-ballot tests—when pricing the most likely outcomes in the 8-13% range.