Traders assign Olivier Faure a strong implied probability for second place in the October 9-10 first round because his position as PS first secretary provides organizational reach among the 140,282 registered voters, even as Raphaël Glucksmann leads overall expectations. Glucksmann’s lower odds for second reflect his frontrunner status in broader polling and independent positioning. Recent televised debates have highlighted strategic divides, with Faure advocating wider left coordination and Glucksmann emphasizing autonomy from La France Insoumise. Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj trail with single-digit probabilities, consistent with limited recent momentum and narrower support bases ahead of the electronic vote.