**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 2nd congressional district jungle primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs over 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff.** The district’s strong Democratic lean (D+25 PVI) and Carter’s prior outright victories support trader consensus that he will clear the majority threshold. Other candidates include fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated Walter Beach. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a close enough split to force a runoff. The August 2026 filing deadline locked in this limited opposition, and the absence of major late developments or stronger challengers has kept the implied probability of an outright first-round winner elevated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
86% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Sí
86% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 2nd congressional district jungle primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs over 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff.**
The district’s strong Democratic lean (D+25 PVI) and Carter’s prior outright victories support trader consensus that he will clear the majority threshold. Other candidates include fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated Walter Beach. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a close enough split to force a runoff. The August 2026 filing deadline locked in this limited opposition, and the absence of major late developments or stronger challengers has kept the implied probability of an outright first-round winner elevated.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$495Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 2nd congressional district jungle primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs over 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff.**
The district’s strong Democratic lean (D+25 PVI) and Carter’s prior outright victories support trader consensus that he will clear the majority threshold. Other candidates include fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated Walter Beach. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a close enough split to force a runoff. The August 2026 filing deadline locked in this limited opposition, and the absence of major late developments or stronger challengers has kept the implied probability of an outright first-round winner elevated.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
Volumen
$495Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 2nd congressional district jungle primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs over 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff.** The district’s strong Democratic lean (D+25 PVI) and Carter’s prior outright victories support trader consensus that he will clear the majority threshold. Other candidates include fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated Walter Beach. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a close enough split to force a runoff. The August 2026 filing deadline locked in this limited opposition, and the absence of major late developments or stronger challengers has kept the implied probability of an outright first-round winner elevated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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