Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside a divided FOMC's 9-3 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% on July 29, has anchored trader expectations for consecutive pauses through October. Persistent price pressures tied to energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable unemployment near 4.1%, limit room for easing while fueling hawkish dissent favoring hikes. Market-implied odds reflect this caution, with the 59% probability on pause-pause-pause underscoring consensus that data through the August CPI release and September FOMC will sustain restrictive policy absent clear disinflation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$709,909 Vol.
$709,909 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$709,909 Vol.
$709,909 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$234,860 Vol.
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,425 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$35,275 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
Other
$310,801 Vol.
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside a divided FOMC's 9-3 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% on July 29, has anchored trader expectations for consecutive pauses through October. Persistent price pressures tied to energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable unemployment near 4.1%, limit room for easing while fueling hawkish dissent favoring hikes. Market-implied odds reflect this caution, with the 59% probability on pause-pause-pause underscoring consensus that data through the August CPI release and September FOMC will sustain restrictive policy absent clear disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$709,909Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside a divided FOMC's 9-3 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% on July 29, has anchored trader expectations for consecutive pauses through October. Persistent price pressures tied to energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable unemployment near 4.1%, limit room for easing while fueling hawkish dissent favoring hikes. Market-implied odds reflect this caution, with the 59% probability on pause-pause-pause underscoring consensus that data through the August CPI release and September FOMC will sustain restrictive policy absent clear disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$709,909Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside a divided FOMC's 9-3 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% on July 29, has anchored trader expectations for consecutive pauses through October. Persistent price pressures tied to energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable unemployment near 4.1%, limit room for easing while fueling hawkish dissent favoring hikes. Market-implied odds reflect this caution, with the 59% probability on pause-pause-pause underscoring consensus that data through the August CPI release and September FOMC will sustain restrictive policy absent clear disinflation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes