Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures at 2.6%, alongside a hawkish tilt from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate target of 3.50–3.75% has held steady since the July decision, where officials signaled caution amid divided projections for year-end tightening. Recent labor-market softening, including a 23,000 decline in July nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1% unemployment rate, tempers hike expectations but has not shifted the consensus toward easing. Traders are focused on the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC signals as potential catalysts that could adjust implied odds for a 25-basis-point move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
Sin cambio 68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 24%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 7%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$520,952 Vol.
$520,952 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
7%
Sin cambio
68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
24%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio 68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 24%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 7%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$520,952 Vol.
$520,952 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$118,399 Vol.
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$127,438 Vol.
7%
Sin cambio
$109,012 Vol.
68%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$122,986 Vol.
24%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$43,116 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures at 2.6%, alongside a hawkish tilt from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate target of 3.50–3.75% has held steady since the July decision, where officials signaled caution amid divided projections for year-end tightening. Recent labor-market softening, including a 23,000 decline in July nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1% unemployment rate, tempers hike expectations but has not shifted the consensus toward easing. Traders are focused on the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC signals as potential catalysts that could adjust implied odds for a 25-basis-point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$520,952Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures at 2.6%, alongside a hawkish tilt from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate target of 3.50–3.75% has held steady since the July decision, where officials signaled caution amid divided projections for year-end tightening. Recent labor-market softening, including a 23,000 decline in July nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1% unemployment rate, tempers hike expectations but has not shifted the consensus toward easing. Traders are focused on the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC signals as potential catalysts that could adjust implied odds for a 25-basis-point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$520,952Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures at 2.6%, alongside a hawkish tilt from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate target of 3.50–3.75% has held steady since the July decision, where officials signaled caution amid divided projections for year-end tightening. Recent labor-market softening, including a 23,000 decline in July nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1% unemployment rate, tempers hike expectations but has not shifted the consensus toward easing. Traders are focused on the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC signals as potential catalysts that could adjust implied odds for a 25-basis-point move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No habrá ningún cambio en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de septiembre de 2026?
63%
Sí
¿No habrá cambios en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de diciembre de 2026?
59%
Sí
¿Será el límite superior de la tasa objetivo de los fondos federales del 4,0% al final de 2026?
41%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes