Name: 'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'?
Start: 2023-12-14T20:49:34.744Z
End: 2024-03-04T00:00:00Z

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This is a market on whether 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) will gross more domestically on its opening weekend than 'Dune' (2023) did, namely more than $41,011,174. The “Domestic Weekend” figure on Box Office Mojo for each film ('Dune': https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1160419/ ; 'Dune: Part Two': https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/) will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 1 - March 3) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses more than $41,011,174 on its 3-day opening. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'?

Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. 

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized. 

If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

¿Cuál recaudará más en su primer fin de semana, Dune 3 o Avengers: Doomsday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Greenland 2: Migration" grosses $25,000,000 or more domestically from opening through January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates from opening until January 31 (January 9 - January 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Total Gross in the Daily Box Office section for the specified timeframe, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

¿Greenland 2: Migration recaudará 25 millones o más a nivel nacional para el 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Marty Supreme" grosses $70,000,000 or more domestically from opening through January 31. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates from opening until January 31 (December 25 - January 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Total Gross in the Daily Box Office section for the specified timeframe, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

¿Marty Supreme recaudará 70 millones o más a nivel nacional antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest domestic gross between opening and March 31, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

¿Será una película de Minecraft la película con mayor recaudación nacional el 15 de marzo de 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Anaconda" grosses $70,000,000 or more domestically from opening through January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates from opening until January 31 (December 25 - January 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Total Gross in the Daily Box Office section for the specified timeframe, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

¿Anaconda recaudará 70 millones o más a nivel nacional para el 31 de enero?

This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (December 19, 2025) and January 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including January 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

¿Será la recaudación bruta nacional total de Avatar: Fuego y Cenizas menor a 400 millones para el 31 de enero?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 390m by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dua Lipa and Callum Turner's marriage takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only announcements made within this market's timeframe will qualify. No announcements made after December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET will be considered, even if the marriage itself is announced to have taken place within the market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Dua Lipa and Callum Turner, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Dua Lipa and Callum Turner get married by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series.

If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Nuevo episodio de "Stranger Things" lanzado antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.

This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.

¿Los ingresos de Based Polymarket alcanzarán $1M antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.

¿Avatar 4 aprobado antes del 31 de marzo?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


¿Generarán los aranceles más de $250 mil millones en 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

¿Alcanzará la capitalización de mercado de USDT los $200 mil millones antes de 2027?

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is moved by ten seconds or more in either direction (i.e. closer than 80 seconds to midnight, or farther than 98 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Doomsday Clock setting is delayed this market's resolution may be delayed until the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' 2025 release is published. If no release is published by June 30, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be information released by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

¿Se moverá el Reloj del Juicio Final diez segundos o más?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

¿Ola azul en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Melania (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on February 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

¿Conseguirá "Melania" al menos 10 en el Tomatometer de Rotten Tomatoes?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

¿Recesión en EE. UU. para finales de 2026?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Netflix currently scheduled to take place on January 20, 2026 at 4:45 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Return to Silent Hill (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on January 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Will "Return to Silent Hill" score at least 29 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf

¿Tsunami azul en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at any point before March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Autocertificará ForecastEx los contratos de eventos deportivos antes del 31 de marzo de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se celebrarán las elecciones de mitad de período de 2026 según lo programado?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount wagered on U.S. sports betting in 2026 is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Legal Sports Report (https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting-states/revenue/), using the “U.S. sports betting revenue by month” table. The annual data will be calculated by summing the values in the “Handle” column for all months in 2026 once the relevant information is available.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable sources

¿Más de $140 mil millones apostados en apuestas deportivas de EE. UU. en 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

¿Alcanzará USDC el 50% de la capitalización de mercado de USDT para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.


¿50 millones de visitas en un video de MrBeast en el primer día para el 31 de marzo?

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 89 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Doomsday Clock setting is delayed this market's resolution may be delayed until the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' 2026 release is published. If no release is published by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be information released by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

¿Se moverá el Reloj del Juicio Final más cerca de la medianoche?

The Joe Rogan Experience podcast releases episodes on https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the first released episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast between January 26, 2026 and February 1, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast is aired by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

JRE MMA Show episodes will not count for this market, only Joe Rogan Experience episodes.

The resolution source will be the released episode from (https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan).

Will "Joe" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 1)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'?

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'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'?

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'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'?

Contexto del Mercado

'Dune 2' bigger opening weekend than 'Dune'?

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