Recent July Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following June's 2.6% reading, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on the 2.4% and 2.3% outcomes. Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer shelter components and core goods prices, even as services inflation remains a source of stickiness and potential upside risk from labor data or tariff effects. Bank forecasts, including TD Securities' projection of 0.19% m/m core growth equating to 2.3% YoY, reinforce this narrow distribution ahead of the BLS release on September 11. The tight spread between leading probabilities reflects ongoing uncertainty around monthly volatility rather than a decisive shift in the underlying inflation trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2,4% 43%
2,3% 31%
2.5% 12%
2,2% 9.3%
$21,668 Vol.
$21,668 Vol.
10 sep 2026
≤2,0%
2%
2,1%
1%
2,2%
7%
2,3%
31%
2,4%
43%
2.5%
12%
2,6%
2%
2,7%
2%
2,8%
1%
≥2,9%
1%
2,4% 43%
2,3% 31%
2.5% 12%
2,2% 9.3%
$21,668 Vol.
$21,668 Vol.
10 sep 2026
≤2,0%
$457 Vol.
2%
2,1%
$457 Vol.
1%
2,2%
$630 Vol.
7%
2,3%
$2,164 Vol.
31%
2,4%
$12,042 Vol.
43%
2.5%
$2,478 Vol.
12%
2,6%
$931 Vol.
2%
2,7%
$1,080 Vol.
2%
2,8%
$938 Vol.
1%
≥2,9%
$492 Vol.
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following June's 2.6% reading, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on the 2.4% and 2.3% outcomes. Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer shelter components and core goods prices, even as services inflation remains a source of stickiness and potential upside risk from labor data or tariff effects. Bank forecasts, including TD Securities' projection of 0.19% m/m core growth equating to 2.3% YoY, reinforce this narrow distribution ahead of the BLS release on September 11. The tight spread between leading probabilities reflects ongoing uncertainty around monthly volatility rather than a decisive shift in the underlying inflation trajectory.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volumen
$21,668Fecha de finalización
11 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following June's 2.6% reading, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on the 2.4% and 2.3% outcomes. Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer shelter components and core goods prices, even as services inflation remains a source of stickiness and potential upside risk from labor data or tariff effects. Bank forecasts, including TD Securities' projection of 0.19% m/m core growth equating to 2.3% YoY, reinforce this narrow distribution ahead of the BLS release on September 11. The tight spread between leading probabilities reflects ongoing uncertainty around monthly volatility rather than a decisive shift in the underlying inflation trajectory.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$21,668Fecha de finalización
11 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following June's 2.6% reading, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on the 2.4% and 2.3% outcomes. Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer shelter components and core goods prices, even as services inflation remains a source of stickiness and potential upside risk from labor data or tariff effects. Bank forecasts, including TD Securities' projection of 0.19% m/m core growth equating to 2.3% YoY, reinforce this narrow distribution ahead of the BLS release on September 11. The tight spread between leading probabilities reflects ongoing uncertainty around monthly volatility rather than a decisive shift in the underlying inflation trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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