Several states feature polling averages showing single-digit margins in the 2026 Senate cycle, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election trading as the tightest contests. Recent surveys indicate shifting leads in Texas between Democratic and Republican nominees, narrow gaps in Iowa and Michigan, and competitive positioning in Alaska and Maine driven by open seats and retirements. The national environment remains balanced, with generic ballot trends and state-specific turnout patterns keeping multiple races within reach of the smallest final margin on November 3. Trader consensus prices this cluster of toss-ups highest, as modest changes in voter enthusiasm, endorsements, or late polling could separate one outcome without altering broader control forecasts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTexas 15%
Iowa 13.8%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$41,554 Vol.
$41,554 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
15%
Iowa
14%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
11%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Nebraska
9%
Maine
9%
New Hampshire
4%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
3%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 13.8%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$41,554 Vol.
$41,554 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
$1,876 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$3,287 Vol.
14%
Michigan
$2,998 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$7,695 Vol.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$8,979 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$2,693 Vol.
9%
Maine
$1,398 Vol.
9%
New Hampshire
$788 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
3%
North Carolina
$1,483 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,561 Vol.
1%
Montana
$1,383 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several states feature polling averages showing single-digit margins in the 2026 Senate cycle, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election trading as the tightest contests. Recent surveys indicate shifting leads in Texas between Democratic and Republican nominees, narrow gaps in Iowa and Michigan, and competitive positioning in Alaska and Maine driven by open seats and retirements. The national environment remains balanced, with generic ballot trends and state-specific turnout patterns keeping multiple races within reach of the smallest final margin on November 3. Trader consensus prices this cluster of toss-ups highest, as modest changes in voter enthusiasm, endorsements, or late polling could separate one outcome without altering broader control forecasts.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$41,554Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several states feature polling averages showing single-digit margins in the 2026 Senate cycle, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election trading as the tightest contests. Recent surveys indicate shifting leads in Texas between Democratic and Republican nominees, narrow gaps in Iowa and Michigan, and competitive positioning in Alaska and Maine driven by open seats and retirements. The national environment remains balanced, with generic ballot trends and state-specific turnout patterns keeping multiple races within reach of the smallest final margin on November 3. Trader consensus prices this cluster of toss-ups highest, as modest changes in voter enthusiasm, endorsements, or late polling could separate one outcome without altering broader control forecasts.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$41,554Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several states feature polling averages showing single-digit margins in the 2026 Senate cycle, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election trading as the tightest contests. Recent surveys indicate shifting leads in Texas between Democratic and Republican nominees, narrow gaps in Iowa and Michigan, and competitive positioning in Alaska and Maine driven by open seats and retirements. The national environment remains balanced, with generic ballot trends and state-specific turnout patterns keeping multiple races within reach of the smallest final margin on November 3. Trader consensus prices this cluster of toss-ups highest, as modest changes in voter enthusiasm, endorsements, or late polling could separate one outcome without altering broader control forecasts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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