China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around 4.3-4.9% as the most probable range, driven by the economy’s sequential slowdown after Q1 expansion of 5.0% and Q2 print of 4.3% year-over-year. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, soft consumption, and subdued inflation—most recently 0.5% year-over-year in July—continue to weigh on momentum despite resilient exports and manufacturing support. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 4.5-4.6%, aligning with authorities’ targets and recent Reuters and ADB polls, while limited monetary space keeps focus on potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Market-implied odds price in these structural headwinds and policy uncertainty without assuming aggressive reacceleration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 13.6%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,969 Vol.
$26,969 Vol.
20 oct 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
14%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
38%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 13.6%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,969 Vol.
$26,969 Vol.
20 oct 2026
<3.4%
$957 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,752 Vol.
14%
4.3-4.6%
$10,019 Vol.
49%
4.6-4.9%
$8,081 Vol.
38%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 Vol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$899 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,045 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around 4.3-4.9% as the most probable range, driven by the economy’s sequential slowdown after Q1 expansion of 5.0% and Q2 print of 4.3% year-over-year. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, soft consumption, and subdued inflation—most recently 0.5% year-over-year in July—continue to weigh on momentum despite resilient exports and manufacturing support. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 4.5-4.6%, aligning with authorities’ targets and recent Reuters and ADB polls, while limited monetary space keeps focus on potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Market-implied odds price in these structural headwinds and policy uncertainty without assuming aggressive reacceleration.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado abierto: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volumen
$26,969Fecha de finalización
20 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around 4.3-4.9% as the most probable range, driven by the economy’s sequential slowdown after Q1 expansion of 5.0% and Q2 print of 4.3% year-over-year. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, soft consumption, and subdued inflation—most recently 0.5% year-over-year in July—continue to weigh on momentum despite resilient exports and manufacturing support. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 4.5-4.6%, aligning with authorities’ targets and recent Reuters and ADB polls, while limited monetary space keeps focus on potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Market-implied odds price in these structural headwinds and policy uncertainty without assuming aggressive reacceleration.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$26,969Fecha de finalización
20 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around 4.3-4.9% as the most probable range, driven by the economy’s sequential slowdown after Q1 expansion of 5.0% and Q2 print of 4.3% year-over-year. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, soft consumption, and subdued inflation—most recently 0.5% year-over-year in July—continue to weigh on momentum despite resilient exports and manufacturing support. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 4.5-4.6%, aligning with authorities’ targets and recent Reuters and ADB polls, while limited monetary space keeps focus on potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Market-implied odds price in these structural headwinds and policy uncertainty without assuming aggressive reacceleration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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