Record registration of 23.16 million voters as of September 2026, the highest on record and up sharply from 2022, anchors trader expectations around the 13–13.5 million vote range. Surveys show 96 percent of likely voters intend to participate, with Democratic frontrunner Xavier Becerra holding a wide lead that has sustained engagement despite some narrowing in recent polling. Primary turnout reached 40.7 percent statewide, the strongest non-presidential showing in years, while demographic gaps—lower rates among Latinos, Asians, and younger voters—along with no-party-preference growth and mail-ballot dynamics cap upside potential. Historical midterm patterns and the November 3 resolution window further support concentration in the middle bins.