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icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo

icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo

Flavio Bolsonaro 93%

Lula 6.6%

Zema <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$24,335 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 93%

Lula 6.6%

Zema <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$24,335 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$7,655 Vol.

93%

icon for Lula

Lula

$9,200 Vol.

7%

icon for Zema

Zema

$693 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,365 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$543 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$423 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$526 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$512 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$714 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$497 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,189 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$517 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$503 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place among São Paulo voters in the October 4 first round, reflecting consistent polling leads or statistical ties in the state’s surveys over recent weeks. Recent Quaest and Futura data showed him ahead of Lula by narrow to moderate margins in the largest electoral college, supported by strong right-wing mobilization around Supreme Federal Court tensions and high-visibility campaign events on Avenida Paulista. Party federation support from União Brasil and PP chapters in São Paulo, combined with alignment alongside Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, has consolidated conservative backing. Late-campaign dynamics, including turnout among evangelical and interior voters, underpin the market’s assessment of limited room for other candidates. A sudden shift in undecided voters, stronger Lula performance on economic messaging, or unexpected legal developments could still alter the outcome before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$24,335
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place among São Paulo voters in the October 4 first round, reflecting consistent polling leads or statistical ties in the state’s surveys over recent weeks. Recent Quaest and Futura data showed him ahead of Lula by narrow to moderate margins in the largest electoral college, supported by strong right-wing mobilization around Supreme Federal Court tensions and high-visibility campaign events on Avenida Paulista. Party federation support from União Brasil and PP chapters in São Paulo, combined with alignment alongside Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, has consolidated conservative backing. Late-campaign dynamics, including turnout among evangelical and interior voters, underpin the market’s assessment of limited room for other candidates. A sudden shift in undecided voters, stronger Lula performance on economic messaging, or unexpected legal developments could still alter the outcome before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$24,335
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 93%, seguido de "Lula" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 93¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 93% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo" ha generado $24.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Aug 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo" es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 93%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 93% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Lula" con 7%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en São Paulo" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.