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icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul

icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 11%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$22,203 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 11%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$22,203 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$7,420 Vol.

89%

icon for Lula

Lula

$3,654 Vol.

11%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$816 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$1,437 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$1,173 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,087 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$1,437 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$1,171 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$493 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$858 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$640 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$641 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$1,376 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds an 88.5% implied probability of finishing first in Rio Grande do Sul’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, well ahead of Lula at 10.5% and all other listed candidates below 1%. State-level surveys from Real Time Big Data in June and September showed the PL senator at 42% against Lula’s 39%, with Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury in low single digits. Recent national polling remains tighter overall, yet RS voters have not shifted toward alternatives despite a fresh Supreme Court-linked investigation into Flavio over alleged money laundering tied to a film project. Traders appear to price the sustained regional edge and consolidated right-leaning support in the state as the dominant factor sustaining the wide lead.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$22,203
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds an 88.5% implied probability of finishing first in Rio Grande do Sul’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, well ahead of Lula at 10.5% and all other listed candidates below 1%. State-level surveys from Real Time Big Data in June and September showed the PL senator at 42% against Lula’s 39%, with Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury in low single digits. Recent national polling remains tighter overall, yet RS voters have not shifted toward alternatives despite a fresh Supreme Court-linked investigation into Flavio over alleged money laundering tied to a film project. Traders appear to price the sustained regional edge and consolidated right-leaning support in the state as the dominant factor sustaining the wide lead.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$22,203
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 89%, seguido de "Lula" con 11%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 89¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 89% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul" ha generado $22.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Aug 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul" es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 89%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 89% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Lula" con 11%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Rio Grande do Sul" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.