Lula’s commanding position in Piauí reflects the state’s status as a longstanding PT stronghold in the Northeast, where he secured over 76% in the 2022 second round. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and AtlasIntel shows him at 60-65% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other registered candidates at 3% or below. Traders’ 97% consensus aligns with these margins and Lula’s September 2026 campaign visit to the state alongside local PT figures. A first-round upset would require an unprecedented late swing in turnout or voter preference, which current evidence from multiple surveys does not indicate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLula 97.1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,699 Vol.
$12,699 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Lula
97%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Zema
1%
Samara
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 97.1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,699 Vol.
$12,699 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Lula
$7,612 Vol.
97%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$408 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$459 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$485 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$398 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$393 Vol.
1%
Zema
$500 Vol.
1%
Samara
$311 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$377 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$475 Vol.
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$419 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$391 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$472 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position in Piauí reflects the state’s status as a longstanding PT stronghold in the Northeast, where he secured over 76% in the 2022 second round. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and AtlasIntel shows him at 60-65% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other registered candidates at 3% or below. Traders’ 97% consensus aligns with these margins and Lula’s September 2026 campaign visit to the state alongside local PT figures. A first-round upset would require an unprecedented late swing in turnout or voter preference, which current evidence from multiple surveys does not indicate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volumen
$12,699Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position in Piauí reflects the state’s status as a longstanding PT stronghold in the Northeast, where he secured over 76% in the 2022 second round. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and AtlasIntel shows him at 60-65% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other registered candidates at 3% or below. Traders’ 97% consensus aligns with these margins and Lula’s September 2026 campaign visit to the state alongside local PT figures. A first-round upset would require an unprecedented late swing in turnout or voter preference, which current evidence from multiple surveys does not indicate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$12,699Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula’s commanding position in Piauí reflects the state’s status as a longstanding PT stronghold in the Northeast, where he secured over 76% in the 2022 second round. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and AtlasIntel shows him at 60-65% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other registered candidates at 3% or below. Traders’ 97% consensus aligns with these margins and Lula’s September 2026 campaign visit to the state alongside local PT figures. A first-round upset would require an unprecedented late swing in turnout or voter preference, which current evidence from multiple surveys does not indicate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Obtendrá Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en Paraíba?
97%
Sí
¿Flavio Bolsonaro obtendrá la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en São Paulo?
89%
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¿Obtendrá Flavio Bolsonaro la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en Paraná?
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Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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