SDP BiH holds a dominant 84.5% implied probability for third place in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s national parliamentary election, reflecting confirmed preliminary results from the October 4 vote. SDA led with roughly 19-20% of the vote, followed by SNSD near 17%, while SDP BiH secured about 9%, ahead of HDZ BiH and smaller lists. These outcomes align with entity-level patterns, including SDA’s strength in the Federation and SNSD’s dominance in Republika Srpska. Traders appear to view final Central Election Commission certification as a formality, with limited scope for late shifts from remaining counts or appeals. Coalition talks involving the top parties have begun but do not alter the finished vote ordering.