The Bank of Japan’s September 17–18 policy meeting carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase to 1.25%, reflecting broad trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and yen weakness will prompt further normalization from the 1.00% level set in June. Recent data showing underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, combined with upside risks from higher oil prices, AI-related demand, and a softer yen, have aligned with Governor Ueda’s repeated signals that every meeting remains live for tightening. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters uniformly anticipate the quarter-point move, consistent with the BOJ’s assessment that financial conditions remain accommodative. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unexpectedly soft inflation prints or a sharp yen appreciation before the decision, though both appear low-probability given the current trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado25 bps increase 98.4%
No change 1.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$762,945 Vol.
$762,945 Vol.
18 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
25 bps increase
98%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 98.4%
No change 1.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$762,945 Vol.
$762,945 Vol.
18 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$24,896 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$38,934 Vol.
<1%
No change
$230,268 Vol.
1%
25 bps increase
$273,339 Vol.
98%
50+ bps increase
$195,508 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Japan’s September 17–18 policy meeting carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase to 1.25%, reflecting broad trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and yen weakness will prompt further normalization from the 1.00% level set in June. Recent data showing underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, combined with upside risks from higher oil prices, AI-related demand, and a softer yen, have aligned with Governor Ueda’s repeated signals that every meeting remains live for tightening. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters uniformly anticipate the quarter-point move, consistent with the BOJ’s assessment that financial conditions remain accommodative. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unexpectedly soft inflation prints or a sharp yen appreciation before the decision, though both appear low-probability given the current trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$762,945Fecha de finalización
18 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Japan’s September 17–18 policy meeting carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase to 1.25%, reflecting broad trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and yen weakness will prompt further normalization from the 1.00% level set in June. Recent data showing underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, combined with upside risks from higher oil prices, AI-related demand, and a softer yen, have aligned with Governor Ueda’s repeated signals that every meeting remains live for tightening. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters uniformly anticipate the quarter-point move, consistent with the BOJ’s assessment that financial conditions remain accommodative. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unexpectedly soft inflation prints or a sharp yen appreciation before the decision, though both appear low-probability given the current trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$762,945Fecha de finalización
18 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s September 17–18 policy meeting carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase to 1.25%, reflecting broad trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and yen weakness will prompt further normalization from the 1.00% level set in June. Recent data showing underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, combined with upside risks from higher oil prices, AI-related demand, and a softer yen, have aligned with Governor Ueda’s repeated signals that every meeting remains live for tightening. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters uniformly anticipate the quarter-point move, consistent with the BOJ’s assessment that financial conditions remain accommodative. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unexpectedly soft inflation prints or a sharp yen appreciation before the decision, though both appear low-probability given the current trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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