**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and related blockades have suppressed Strait of Hormuz traffic to single-digit daily levels throughout August 2026, producing a strong market consensus for the 0-20 ships outcome at 99.6% implied probability.** Pre-war baselines averaged roughly 100–140 vessels per day. Following the February 2026 onset of U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities, a brief June interim agreement lifted averages only to around 20 before the U.S. blockade resumed in mid-July, driving traffic back to approximately five vessels daily from July 15 through late August. Recent data confirm this pattern: 7-day averages hovered near 4–5 transits in the final weeks, with daily counts frequently in the 3–7 range (e.g., six total transits on August 30). The majority of remaining movements involve “dark” AIS-off transits, naval-escorted tankers, or shuttle/ship-to-ship operations concentrated outside the main strait, keeping observable commercial volume minimal. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified maritime intelligence showing sustained suppression from sanctions, Iranian route restrictions, and risk aversion, rather than any near-term reopening. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or sharp escalation in escorted/dark traffic sufficient to push the end-of-month average above 20—though current conditions and proximity to resolution make such moves unlikely without major new developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,424 Vol.
$110,424 Vol.
31 ago 2026
0-20
100%
20-40
<1%
40-60
<1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,424 Vol.
$110,424 Vol.
31 ago 2026
0-20
$61,187 Vol.
100%
20-40
$14,553 Vol.
<1%
40-60
$14,967 Vol.
<1%
60-80
$11,339 Vol.
<1%
80+
$8,378 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and related blockades have suppressed Strait of Hormuz traffic to single-digit daily levels throughout August 2026, producing a strong market consensus for the 0-20 ships outcome at 99.6% implied probability.**
Pre-war baselines averaged roughly 100–140 vessels per day. Following the February 2026 onset of U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities, a brief June interim agreement lifted averages only to around 20 before the U.S. blockade resumed in mid-July, driving traffic back to approximately five vessels daily from July 15 through late August. Recent data confirm this pattern: 7-day averages hovered near 4–5 transits in the final weeks, with daily counts frequently in the 3–7 range (e.g., six total transits on August 30). The majority of remaining movements involve “dark” AIS-off transits, naval-escorted tankers, or shuttle/ship-to-ship operations concentrated outside the main strait, keeping observable commercial volume minimal.
This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified maritime intelligence showing sustained suppression from sanctions, Iranian route restrictions, and risk aversion, rather than any near-term reopening. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or sharp escalation in escorted/dark traffic sufficient to push the end-of-month average above 20—though current conditions and proximity to resolution make such moves unlikely without major new developments.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volumen
$110,424Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and related blockades have suppressed Strait of Hormuz traffic to single-digit daily levels throughout August 2026, producing a strong market consensus for the 0-20 ships outcome at 99.6% implied probability.**
Pre-war baselines averaged roughly 100–140 vessels per day. Following the February 2026 onset of U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities, a brief June interim agreement lifted averages only to around 20 before the U.S. blockade resumed in mid-July, driving traffic back to approximately five vessels daily from July 15 through late August. Recent data confirm this pattern: 7-day averages hovered near 4–5 transits in the final weeks, with daily counts frequently in the 3–7 range (e.g., six total transits on August 30). The majority of remaining movements involve “dark” AIS-off transits, naval-escorted tankers, or shuttle/ship-to-ship operations concentrated outside the main strait, keeping observable commercial volume minimal.
This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified maritime intelligence showing sustained suppression from sanctions, Iranian route restrictions, and risk aversion, rather than any near-term reopening. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or sharp escalation in escorted/dark traffic sufficient to push the end-of-month average above 20—though current conditions and proximity to resolution make such moves unlikely without major new developments.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$110,424Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and related blockades have suppressed Strait of Hormuz traffic to single-digit daily levels throughout August 2026, producing a strong market consensus for the 0-20 ships outcome at 99.6% implied probability.** Pre-war baselines averaged roughly 100–140 vessels per day. Following the February 2026 onset of U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities, a brief June interim agreement lifted averages only to around 20 before the U.S. blockade resumed in mid-July, driving traffic back to approximately five vessels daily from July 15 through late August. Recent data confirm this pattern: 7-day averages hovered near 4–5 transits in the final weeks, with daily counts frequently in the 3–7 range (e.g., six total transits on August 30). The majority of remaining movements involve “dark” AIS-off transits, naval-escorted tankers, or shuttle/ship-to-ship operations concentrated outside the main strait, keeping observable commercial volume minimal. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified maritime intelligence showing sustained suppression from sanctions, Iranian route restrictions, and risk aversion, rather than any near-term reopening. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or sharp escalation in escorted/dark traffic sufficient to push the end-of-month average above 20—though current conditions and proximity to resolution make such moves unlikely without major new developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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