Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green and Libertarian Steve Parsons in Arkansas’s 1st District on November 3, 2026. The solidly Republican northeastern district delivered Crawford a 73 percent victory in 2024, and all major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican with no recent polling or campaign events shifting the baseline. Canceled primaries and limited fundraising by the Democratic challenger reinforce expectations of a substantial Republican margin, keeping trader probabilities concentrated in the 35-45 percent victory range while assigning only 0.5 percent to a Democratic win. Low volume and absence of late-breaking developments have kept the market stable, though national midterm dynamics or any district-specific controversy could still alter the final spread before election night.