Recent multiple incidents have shaped trader views on OpenAI Codex, the large language model-powered coding service spanning its web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension. A 56-minute full outage on September 25 disrupted all components due to internal errors, followed by a five-hour period of elevated errors on September 29 and degraded performance on October 7 from thread-creation failures in the Dot feature. These events, occurring amid heavy developer usage and model scaling challenges, have established a pattern of infrastructure strain that supports the 75.5% implied probability of at least one additional outage before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include any new model deployments or spikes in demand that could expose similar vulnerabilities.