Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Andy Burnham se convertirá en diputado antes del 30 de junio?
¿Andy Burnham se convertirá en diputado antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$57,580 Vol.
$57,580 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$57,580 Vol.
$57,580 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$57,580Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$57,580Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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