Omar Aziz (PSD) holds an 84.5% implied probability in the Amazonas governor market following his first-round performance on October 4, 2026, where he captured roughly 40.6% of valid votes and advanced to the October 25 runoff against Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.5%. Aziz secured victories in 53 of 62 municipalities, drawing on his prior governorship, Senate tenure, and broad coalition support, while Maria do Carmo prevailed mainly in Manaus. Lower-polling candidates including Roberto Cidade, David Almeida, and Cabo Daciolo trailed far behind and were eliminated. Trader positioning reflects Aziz’s established statewide base and historical precedent favoring frontrunners in Brazilian state runoffs, with the narrow window until the second round limiting scope for major shifts absent late developments.