Jordan Bardella leads as the expected National Rally candidate for France’s 2027 presidential election due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2026 conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds, which includes a ban on holding office. Traders assign Bardella a 73.5% implied probability because he faces no such restrictions and has consolidated party leadership. Le Pen retains a 22.5% share while her appeal remains pending before the Paris Court of Appeal, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could lift the ban. Recent municipal election results and polling averages showing strong first-round support for an RN nominee have reinforced Bardella’s position, though the outcome hinges on the court decision and any subsequent party endorsement process.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones presidenciales de Francia de 2027: candidato a un mitin nacional
Elecciones presidenciales de Francia de 2027: candidato a un mitin nacional
Jordan Bardella 73%
Marine Le Pen 24%
Multiple Candidates 6.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 abr 2027
Marine Le Pen
24%
Jordan Bardella
73%
Multiple Candidates
7%
Jordan Bardella 73%
Marine Le Pen 24%
Multiple Candidates 6.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 abr 2027
Marine Le Pen
$1,420 Vol.
24%
Jordan Bardella
$3,106 Vol.
73%
Multiple Candidates
$1,324 Vol.
7%
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jordan Bardella leads as the expected National Rally candidate for France’s 2027 presidential election due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2026 conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds, which includes a ban on holding office. Traders assign Bardella a 73.5% implied probability because he faces no such restrictions and has consolidated party leadership. Le Pen retains a 22.5% share while her appeal remains pending before the Paris Court of Appeal, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could lift the ban. Recent municipal election results and polling averages showing strong first-round support for an RN nominee have reinforced Bardella’s position, though the outcome hinges on the court decision and any subsequent party endorsement process.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volumen
$5,850Fecha de finalización
23 abr 2027Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jordan Bardella leads as the expected National Rally candidate for France’s 2027 presidential election due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2026 conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds, which includes a ban on holding office. Traders assign Bardella a 73.5% implied probability because he faces no such restrictions and has consolidated party leadership. Le Pen retains a 22.5% share while her appeal remains pending before the Paris Court of Appeal, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could lift the ban. Recent municipal election results and polling averages showing strong first-round support for an RN nominee have reinforced Bardella’s position, though the outcome hinges on the court decision and any subsequent party endorsement process.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$5,850Fecha de finalización
23 abr 2027Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jordan Bardella leads as the expected National Rally candidate for France’s 2027 presidential election due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2026 conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds, which includes a ban on holding office. Traders assign Bardella a 73.5% implied probability because he faces no such restrictions and has consolidated party leadership. Le Pen retains a 22.5% share while her appeal remains pending before the Paris Court of Appeal, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could lift the ban. Recent municipal election results and polling averages showing strong first-round support for an RN nominee have reinforced Bardella’s position, though the outcome hinges on the court decision and any subsequent party endorsement process.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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