Fabiano Caruana's clinical 19-move victory with the white pieces over Wei Yi in Round 3 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open has driven trader consensus to a 100% implied probability on his win, as the American grandmaster punished a middlegame blunder—resigning a knight—to leap into sole tournament lead at 2.5/3 points. Caruana entered as heavy favorite atop the world rankings near 2800 Elo, bolstered by his Round 1 defeat of Hikaru Nakamura, Round 2 draw versus Anish Giri, and a lopsided head-to-head record (three wins in five prior games against Wei Yi). The Chinese GM, at 2754 Elo with draws in his first two rounds, showed vulnerability under pressure. With the result official via resignation and no realistic appeals or scoring disputes possible, the market reflects finality in this World Championship cycle qualifier.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
12:45
$1.76K Vol.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If the match ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Fabiano Caruana's clinical 19-move victory with the white pieces over Wei Yi in Round 3 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open has driven trader consensus to a 100% implied probability on his win, as the American grandmaster punished a middlegame blunder—resigning a knight—to leap into sole tournament lead at 2.5/3 points. Caruana entered as heavy favorite atop the world rankings near 2800 Elo, bolstered by his Round 1 defeat of Hikaru Nakamura, Round 2 draw versus Anish Giri, and a lopsided head-to-head record (three wins in five prior games against Wei Yi). The Chinese GM, at 2754 Elo with draws in his first two rounds, showed vulnerability under pressure. With the result official via resignation and no realistic appeals or scoring disputes possible, the market reflects finality in this World Championship cycle qualifier.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 30, 2026, 10:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,759Enddatum
7. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 10:09 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...12:45
$1.76K Vol.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If the match ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Fabiano Caruana's clinical 19-move victory with the white pieces over Wei Yi in Round 3 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open has driven trader consensus to a 100% implied probability on his win, as the American grandmaster punished a middlegame blunder—resigning a knight—to leap into sole tournament lead at 2.5/3 points. Caruana entered as heavy favorite atop the world rankings near 2800 Elo, bolstered by his Round 1 defeat of Hikaru Nakamura, Round 2 draw versus Anish Giri, and a lopsided head-to-head record (three wins in five prior games against Wei Yi). The Chinese GM, at 2754 Elo with draws in his first two rounds, showed vulnerability under pressure. With the result official via resignation and no realistic appeals or scoring disputes possible, the market reflects finality in this World Championship cycle qualifier.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 30, 2026, 10:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,759Enddatum
7. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 10:09 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Fabiano Caruana's clinical 19-move victory with the white pieces over Wei Yi in Round 3 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open has driven trader consensus to a 100% implied probability on his win, as the American grandmaster punished a middlegame blunder—resigning a knight—to leap into sole tournament lead at 2.5/3 points. Caruana entered as heavy favorite atop the world rankings near 2800 Elo, bolstered by his Round 1 defeat of Hikaru Nakamura, Round 2 draw versus Anish Giri, and a lopsided head-to-head record (three wins in five prior games against Wei Yi). The Chinese GM, at 2754 Elo with draws in his first two rounds, showed vulnerability under pressure. With the result official via resignation and no realistic appeals or scoring disputes possible, the market reflects finality in this World Championship cycle qualifier.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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