JoCasta Zamarripa holds an 83.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3, 2026, Wisconsin secretary of state election, reflecting her unopposed Democratic primary victory and a September shift by Sabato’s Crystal Ball to Leans Democratic for the open seat. Jay Schroeder, the Republican nominee after winning his August primary with 47% in a four-way field, sits at 14.5% amid differences over restoring election oversight powers to the office versus the current Wisconsin Elections Commission structure. Zamarripa has also maintained a fundraising edge in recent reports. Minor candidates and write-in options register around 50%, consistent with the race’s limited third-party presence and the two-party frontrunner dynamic in this statewide contest.