Name: Will YNW Melly be found guilty?
Start: 2023-06-27T15:32:59.098Z
End: 2023-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jamell Demons (YNW Melly) is found guilty of any charge in his ongoing case "The State of Florida v. Jamell Demons" (Case Number 19001872CF10A). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If "The State of Florida v. Jamell Demons" case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgement is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

If the trial has not ended by the resolution date, December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

Bulletin Board Update (2:30 PM ET): Per the rules, particularly the third paragraph, this market should resolve 50-50 as the case against YNW Melly had not finished by the resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jamell Demons (YNW Melly) is found guilty of any charge in his ongoing case "The State of Florida v. Jamell Demons" (Case Number 19001872CF10A). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If "The State of Florida v. Jamell Demons" case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgement is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

If the trial has not ended by the resolution date, December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

Will YNW Melly be found guilty?

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wurde BitBoy verurteilt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).

If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.

The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Maduro in allen Anklagepunkten schuldig?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Hat Luigi Mangione es vor 2027 versucht?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally brings criminal charges against, or announces a criminal indictment of, Don Lemon between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental or court sources; however, a broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Don Lemon strafrechtlich angeklagt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):

1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.

2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.

3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.

If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.

Additional notes:

If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.

A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.

A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.

Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.

Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.

Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.

This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.

Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.

Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.

Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.

Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.

If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Elon Musk seinen Fall gegen Sam Altman gewinnen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tom Lee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tom Lee charged by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Yoon Suk Yeol zu mindestens 30 Jahren Gefängnis verurteilt werden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tim Walz bis zum 31. Dezember im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Tim Walz bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 angeklagt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any state or federally elected Minnesota politician for fraud, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird irgendein Politiker aus Minnesota bis zum 31. März wegen Betrugs angeklagt werden?

On March 17, sitting Minnesota State Senator Justin Eichorn was arrested for allegedly soliciting sex from a 16 year old. You can read more about that here: https://minnesotareformer.com/2025/03/18/gop-state-sen-justin-eichorn-arrested-for-suspicion-of-soliciting-sex-with-a-16-year-old-girl/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to soliciting a minor sexual activity in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Eichorn is never charged with soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case, or otherwise all charges related to soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all solicitation of a minor charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


Senator Eichorn schuldig, ein Kind zur Prostitution aufgefordert zu haben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jack Smith charged by March 31?

On January 3, 2026, Nicolás Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a trial start date in the indictment against Nicolás Maduro is scheduled by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the judge schedules a trial date within this market’s timeframe, this will suffice for resolution regardless of the actual date on which the trial is set to begin. If the trial date is subsequently moved, it will have no effect on the outcome of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro-Prozess bis zum 31. Januar angesetzt?

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

Wurde Justin Aguiar vor 2027 wegen sexuellen Übergriffs verurteilt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tim Mynett for fraud, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Ilhan Omars Ehemann wegen Betrugs angeklagt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Ilhan Omar for fraud, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Ilhan Omar wegen Betrugs angeklagt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Kim Keon Hee bis zum 31. März zu einer Gefängnisstrafe verurteilt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione smiles during his next court appearance after the creation of this market. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only smiles captured on photo or video will count toward the resolution of this market, and only smiles captured in the courtroom will qualify. Smiles captured during transportation to or from his next court appearance will not qualify. If Luigi Mangione does not appear in court by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be photos and videos of Luigi Mangione's next appearance in court.

Wird Luigi Mangione beim nächsten Gerichtstermin lächeln?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Harvey Weinstein zu einer Freiheitsstrafe zwischen 20 und 30 Jahren verurteilt werden?

On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


Rojas schuldig im illegalen Abtreibungsfall in Texas?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Jerome Powell vor 2027 im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird der Oberste Gerichtshof bis zum 20. Februar über Trumps Zölle entscheiden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell bis zum 30. Juni bundesweit angeklagt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files a lawsuit against Jerome Powell, in his personal or official capacity, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The lawsuit must be filed in a U.S. federal or state court and must name Jerome Powell as a defendant.

An announcement of a lawsuit will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant U.S. federal court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Trump Powell bis zum 31. März verklagen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird bis zum 31. Dezember jemand wegen Betrugs in Kindertagesstätten in Minnesota angeklagt werden?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the State of Florida enacts a law that modifies the boundaries of federal Congressional Districts in Florida by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Committee votes, hearings, or reports, or other intermediate steps prior to enactment will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Subsequent litigation or challenges to an enacted law will also have no impact on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Florida; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Wird Florida bis zum 31. März ein Gesetz zur Neuabgrenzung der Wahlkreise erlassen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Fremdverschulden im Fall Jeffrey Epstein bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 bestätigt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kang Sun-woo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kang Sun-woo bis zum 31. März im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stefon Diggs bis zum 31. März im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton bis zum 31. Januar im Gefängnis?

Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump stellt die Untersuchung gegen Powell bis zum 28. Februar ein?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird KI vor 2027 einer Straftat angeklagt werden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group. 

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.


Werden Erpressungsbeweise von Epstein bis zum 31. März veröffentlicht?

YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.

If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Jack Doherty zu keiner Gefängnisstrafe verurteilt werden?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.




Clavicular bis 31. Januar berechnet?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Adams by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Eric Adams bis zum 31. Dezember angeklagt?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Wird Trump bis Ende 2026 seines Amtes enthoben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird jemand bis zum 31. März wegen Doxing des Delta-Force-Kommandeurs, der an der Festnahme von Maduro beteiligt ist, angeklagt?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.

If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Nicolás Maduro zu mindestens 60 Jahren Haft verurteilt werden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Werden die Zwischenwahlen 2026 wie geplant stattfinden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Tim Walz bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 zurücktreten?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Wurde der Up Only Podcast bis zum 28. Februar 2026 veröffentlicht?

Becca Good is the widow of Renee Nicole Macklin Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who was shot by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026. According to the New York Times, the Justice Department launched an investigation to examine her ties to activist groups (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/us/prosecutors-doj-resignation-ice-shooting.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Becca Good by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wurde Becca Good bis zum 31. März belastet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will YNW Melly be found guilty?

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Will YNW Melly be found guilty?

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Will YNW Melly be found guilty?

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Will YNW Melly be found guilty?

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