Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict have sharply constrained visible vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude supply, driving elevated oil prices and forcing adaptations like AIS-dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah, and expanded use of bypass pipelines plus Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal. Kpler data showed September oil flows averaging around 7.4–10 million barrels per day through the strait—recovering to about 77% of pre-war baselines—with daily commodity transits fluctuating from single digits to peaks near 29, well below the historical 125 large vessels per day. Traders are pricing in these supply-chain frictions, higher bunker costs, and insurance premiums amid persistent attacks and military escorts, while monitoring any late-September rebounds or resolution milestones that could influence final tally outcomes.