Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated in February 2026 and prompted Iran to impose transit restrictions and effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of suppressed shipping volumes. Daily transits averaged just 4-6 vessels in late August, including tankers, compared with pre-war baselines exceeding 80-130 per day, according to Kpler and other maritime trackers, with many movements occurring via dark AIS signals, Iranian unilateral routes, or limited US-facilitated southern corridors. This has curtailed Gulf oil exports to roughly 4-9 million barrels per day from prior levels near 17-20 million bpd, supporting Brent crude near $100 per barrel amid elevated war-risk premiums and tanker rate surges. Shadow-fleet activity, ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, and selective blacklisting of vessels by Iran have further constrained open traffic, while stalled negotiations over joint corridors and recent attacks on shipping have sustained uncertainty into early September. Traders price these dynamics as limiting the odds of any single-day surge sufficient to meet high transit thresholds by the August 31 resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWerden __ Schiffe bis zum 31. August an einem beliebigen Tag die Straße von Hormus passieren?
Werden __ Schiffe bis zum 31. August an einem beliebigen Tag die Straße von Hormus passieren?
$181,213 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
30+
Nein
40+
Nein
50+
Nein
60+
Nein
80+
Nein
100+
Nein
$181,213 Vol.
30+
$50,512 Vol.
Nein
40+
$48,987 Vol.
Nein
50+
$28,020 Vol.
Nein
60+
$31,889 Vol.
Nein
80+
$11,832 Vol.
Nein
100+
$9,973 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated in February 2026 and prompted Iran to impose transit restrictions and effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of suppressed shipping volumes. Daily transits averaged just 4-6 vessels in late August, including tankers, compared with pre-war baselines exceeding 80-130 per day, according to Kpler and other maritime trackers, with many movements occurring via dark AIS signals, Iranian unilateral routes, or limited US-facilitated southern corridors. This has curtailed Gulf oil exports to roughly 4-9 million barrels per day from prior levels near 17-20 million bpd, supporting Brent crude near $100 per barrel amid elevated war-risk premiums and tanker rate surges. Shadow-fleet activity, ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, and selective blacklisting of vessels by Iran have further constrained open traffic, while stalled negotiations over joint corridors and recent attacks on shipping have sustained uncertainty into early September. Traders price these dynamics as limiting the odds of any single-day surge sufficient to meet high transit thresholds by the August 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volumen
$181,213Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated in February 2026 and prompted Iran to impose transit restrictions and effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of suppressed shipping volumes. Daily transits averaged just 4-6 vessels in late August, including tankers, compared with pre-war baselines exceeding 80-130 per day, according to Kpler and other maritime trackers, with many movements occurring via dark AIS signals, Iranian unilateral routes, or limited US-facilitated southern corridors. This has curtailed Gulf oil exports to roughly 4-9 million barrels per day from prior levels near 17-20 million bpd, supporting Brent crude near $100 per barrel amid elevated war-risk premiums and tanker rate surges. Shadow-fleet activity, ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, and selective blacklisting of vessels by Iran have further constrained open traffic, while stalled negotiations over joint corridors and recent attacks on shipping have sustained uncertainty into early September. Traders price these dynamics as limiting the odds of any single-day surge sufficient to meet high transit thresholds by the August 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$181,213Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated in February 2026 and prompted Iran to impose transit restrictions and effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of suppressed shipping volumes. Daily transits averaged just 4-6 vessels in late August, including tankers, compared with pre-war baselines exceeding 80-130 per day, according to Kpler and other maritime trackers, with many movements occurring via dark AIS signals, Iranian unilateral routes, or limited US-facilitated southern corridors. This has curtailed Gulf oil exports to roughly 4-9 million barrels per day from prior levels near 17-20 million bpd, supporting Brent crude near $100 per barrel amid elevated war-risk premiums and tanker rate surges. Shadow-fleet activity, ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, and selective blacklisting of vessels by Iran have further constrained open traffic, while stalled negotiations over joint corridors and recent attacks on shipping have sustained uncertainty into early September. Traders price these dynamics as limiting the odds of any single-day surge sufficient to meet high transit thresholds by the August 31 resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Werden bis zum 30. September 2026 an mindestens einem Tag mindestens 10 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?
55%
Ja
Kehrt der Verkehr in der Straße von Hormus bis zum 30. September zur Normalität zurück?
2%
Ja
Wird es am 30. September zwischen 0 und 5 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Straße von Hormus geben?
71%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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