Apple’s established annual iPhone hardware cycle drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the company will release an iPhone 18 in 2026. The pattern of unveiling a new flagship model each September has remained uninterrupted for more than a decade, supported by ongoing semiconductor development and supply-chain planning that typically begin years in advance. With the iPhone 17 expected to launch in 2025, the next iteration follows the same cadence unless an extraordinary disruption occurs. While supply-chain delays, component shortages, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift specific timing or features, these factors have not historically prevented an annual release. Traders therefore price near-certainty around the continuation of Apple’s predictable product roadmap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$105,074 Vol.
$105,074 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$105,074 Vol.
$105,074 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone hardware cycle drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the company will release an iPhone 18 in 2026. The pattern of unveiling a new flagship model each September has remained uninterrupted for more than a decade, supported by ongoing semiconductor development and supply-chain planning that typically begin years in advance. With the iPhone 17 expected to launch in 2025, the next iteration follows the same cadence unless an extraordinary disruption occurs. While supply-chain delays, component shortages, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift specific timing or features, these factors have not historically prevented an annual release. Traders therefore price near-certainty around the continuation of Apple’s predictable product roadmap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$105,074Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone hardware cycle drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the company will release an iPhone 18 in 2026. The pattern of unveiling a new flagship model each September has remained uninterrupted for more than a decade, supported by ongoing semiconductor development and supply-chain planning that typically begin years in advance. With the iPhone 17 expected to launch in 2025, the next iteration follows the same cadence unless an extraordinary disruption occurs. While supply-chain delays, component shortages, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift specific timing or features, these factors have not historically prevented an annual release. Traders therefore price near-certainty around the continuation of Apple’s predictable product roadmap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$105,074Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual iPhone hardware cycle drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the company will release an iPhone 18 in 2026. The pattern of unveiling a new flagship model each September has remained uninterrupted for more than a decade, supported by ongoing semiconductor development and supply-chain planning that typically begin years in advance. With the iPhone 17 expected to launch in 2025, the next iteration follows the same cadence unless an extraordinary disruption occurs. While supply-chain delays, component shortages, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could shift specific timing or features, these factors have not historically prevented an annual release. Traders therefore price near-certainty around the continuation of Apple’s predictable product roadmap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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