Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches the market in 2026. The company has launched a new flagship iPhone each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 continuing this pattern and positioning the next model for 2026. Supply chain reports and component roadmaps show no major disruptions, supporting trader consensus on timely hardware and software availability. While strong consensus exists, realistic risks remain, including potential manufacturing delays from advanced chip production, regulatory approvals in major markets, or unforeseen technical challenges with new features such as improved AI capabilities or camera systems that could shift the exact launch window within the year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$105,072 Vol.
$105,072 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$105,072 Vol.
$105,072 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches the market in 2026. The company has launched a new flagship iPhone each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 continuing this pattern and positioning the next model for 2026. Supply chain reports and component roadmaps show no major disruptions, supporting trader consensus on timely hardware and software availability. While strong consensus exists, realistic risks remain, including potential manufacturing delays from advanced chip production, regulatory approvals in major markets, or unforeseen technical challenges with new features such as improved AI capabilities or camera systems that could shift the exact launch window within the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$105,072Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches the market in 2026. The company has launched a new flagship iPhone each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 continuing this pattern and positioning the next model for 2026. Supply chain reports and component roadmaps show no major disruptions, supporting trader consensus on timely hardware and software availability. While strong consensus exists, realistic risks remain, including potential manufacturing delays from advanced chip production, regulatory approvals in major markets, or unforeseen technical challenges with new features such as improved AI capabilities or camera systems that could shift the exact launch window within the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$105,072Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 95.6% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 reaches the market in 2026. The company has launched a new flagship iPhone each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 continuing this pattern and positioning the next model for 2026. Supply chain reports and component roadmaps show no major disruptions, supporting trader consensus on timely hardware and software availability. While strong consensus exists, realistic risks remain, including potential manufacturing delays from advanced chip production, regulatory approvals in major markets, or unforeseen technical challenges with new features such as improved AI capabilities or camera systems that could shift the exact launch window within the year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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