Apple’s longstanding practice of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this annual hardware cycle for more than a decade, supported by a mature supply chain and predictable semiconductor roadmaps that enable consistent feature upgrades such as improved processors and camera systems. No credible reports indicate a planned skip or multi-year refresh cycle. While realistic disruptions remain possible—including extended component delays, export restrictions, or unforeseen manufacturing setbacks—these have historically caused only minor shifts rather than cancellations, preserving strong trader consensus around the traditional timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$111,252 Vol.
$111,252 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$111,252 Vol.
$111,252 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding practice of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this annual hardware cycle for more than a decade, supported by a mature supply chain and predictable semiconductor roadmaps that enable consistent feature upgrades such as improved processors and camera systems. No credible reports indicate a planned skip or multi-year refresh cycle. While realistic disruptions remain possible—including extended component delays, export restrictions, or unforeseen manufacturing setbacks—these have historically caused only minor shifts rather than cancellations, preserving strong trader consensus around the traditional timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$111,252Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding practice of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this annual hardware cycle for more than a decade, supported by a mature supply chain and predictable semiconductor roadmaps that enable consistent feature upgrades such as improved processors and camera systems. No credible reports indicate a planned skip or multi-year refresh cycle. While realistic disruptions remain possible—including extended component delays, export restrictions, or unforeseen manufacturing setbacks—these have historically caused only minor shifts rather than cancellations, preserving strong trader consensus around the traditional timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$111,252Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s longstanding practice of unveiling a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this annual hardware cycle for more than a decade, supported by a mature supply chain and predictable semiconductor roadmaps that enable consistent feature upgrades such as improved processors and camera systems. No credible reports indicate a planned skip or multi-year refresh cycle. While realistic disruptions remain possible—including extended component delays, export restrictions, or unforeseen manufacturing setbacks—these have historically caused only minor shifts rather than cancellations, preserving strong trader consensus around the traditional timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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