Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, are slated for a fall 2026 debut powered by next-generation chips and advanced displays, while base models shift to early 2027. This split-launch strategy reflects supply chain and revenue optimization rather than any full-year skip. Traders see minimal risk of total cancellation given ongoing development timelines and Apple's track record, though unexpected regulatory hurdles or major production setbacks could still alter the schedule.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$105,072 Vol.
$105,072 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$105,072 Vol.
$105,072 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, are slated for a fall 2026 debut powered by next-generation chips and advanced displays, while base models shift to early 2027. This split-launch strategy reflects supply chain and revenue optimization rather than any full-year skip. Traders see minimal risk of total cancellation given ongoing development timelines and Apple's track record, though unexpected regulatory hurdles or major production setbacks could still alter the schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$105,072Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, are slated for a fall 2026 debut powered by next-generation chips and advanced displays, while base models shift to early 2027. This split-launch strategy reflects supply chain and revenue optimization rather than any full-year skip. Traders see minimal risk of total cancellation given ongoing development timelines and Apple's track record, though unexpected regulatory hurdles or major production setbacks could still alter the schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$105,072Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, are slated for a fall 2026 debut powered by next-generation chips and advanced displays, while base models shift to early 2027. This split-launch strategy reflects supply chain and revenue optimization rather than any full-year skip. Traders see minimal risk of total cancellation given ongoing development timelines and Apple's track record, though unexpected regulatory hurdles or major production setbacks could still alter the schedule.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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